🌦️ India’s Monsoon Arrives Over a Week Early – Detailed Report
Date: June 26, 2025
Sources: Reuters, Economic Times, IMD
🧭 Overview
India’s annual southwest monsoon has arrived significantly earlier than usual in 2025, marking one of the fastest advances in recent years. The monsoon typically begins in Kerala around June 1 and gradually covers the entire country by July 8. This year, it made landfall on May 24—eight days ahead of schedule and the earliest since 2009. As of June 26, rainfall has reached almost the entire country, with only parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh still awaiting monsoon showers. These regions are expected to receive rainfall within the next 3–4 days.
📅 Monsoon Timeline and Current Progress
The monsoon’s early entry was initially followed by a temporary stall in early June, causing a 31% rainfall deficit. However, this was quickly reversed as the rains picked up pace, leading to a 9% surplus in national rainfall by the third week of June. Continued heavy rainfall is now forecast across central and northern India, which is expected to further accelerate the sowing of kharif crops.
🌾 Agricultural Impacts
The early arrival of monsoon has proven highly beneficial for Indian agriculture. Farmers in key agricultural states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh have already begun sowing crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, sugarcane, and pulses. Early and sufficient soil moisture provides the right conditions for timely planting, which is crucial for achieving high yields during the kharif season.
In addition to supporting food production, the early rains may also help lower food inflation—a concern in the past few quarters. Improved crop output may stabilize prices, which could allow the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to explore the possibility of future interest rate cuts, aiding broader economic growth.
📈 Economic Boost and Sectoral Benefits
The monsoon's timely and broad coverage also offers a strong boost to the rural economy. The agriculture sector supports over 60% of India’s population directly or indirectly, and a good monsoon enhances farm income, increases demand for rural goods, and drives consumption.
Fertilizer companies such as UPL and IFFCO are already seeing higher demand due to the increased sowing activity. Similarly, industries linked to rural spending—like tractor manufacturers, seed suppliers, and agrochemical firms—are poised for growth in the coming months.
⚠️ Risks and Regional Disparities
Despite the overall positive outlook, experts urge caution. Not all regions have received equal rainfall. Northwestern India—including Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, and parts of Uttar Pradesh—continues to experience below-average rainfall. The IMD forecasts improvement in these areas, but the delay may disrupt sowing schedules and crop planning.Moreover, the coastal states of Kerala and Goa have seen very heavy downpours, leading to flash flooding and disruption. The IMD has issued alerts for localized flooding and potential landslides in these and other high-rainfall regions. Experts emphasize that an early onset does not always mean a uniformly beneficial monsoon—the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is key.
🌀 Outlook and Forecast
Looking ahead, the India Meteorological Department expects above-average rainfall for the entire June–September monsoon season. The total rainfall is projected to be about 106% of the long-period average, which is considered favorable for both farming and water resource replenishment.
In the short term, regions still awaiting rain—particularly in northwestern India—are expected to receive precipitation in the next few days, completing the national monsoon coverage.
📝 Editorial Summary
The 2025 southwest monsoon has made an unusually early and swift entry across India, reversing an early deficit and creating a rainfall surplus by late June. With agricultural operations in full swing and the rural economy already responding positively, the early rains are likely to benefit the economy through better crop yields, moderated inflation, and stronger rural demand. However, uneven distribution and regional flood threats must be closely watched, making it essential for both authorities and farmers to remain vigilant as the season progresses.